Neo-institutionalism, proto Xandrekistan
This theory makes it possible to examine the latent and subtle (diffuse) power that exists in democratic institutions that can substantially modify the results expected by perfectly democratic institutions, rules and practices, in the political and institutional process, to manipulate the majority will in the decisions established by the rule. of the majority, in order to obtain a result different from that desired by the majority.
This manipulation of the majority will becomes possible in practice due to a series of democratic resources in which the leader of the process has control over the actions that determine the results, sometimes establishing a certain sequence on the agenda, sometimes withdrawing proposals from consideration, sometimes because of the nature and spatial distribution of the actors' preferences, sometimes due to the limitations of the available options, sometimes due to the most varied conditions and contingencies, sometimes due to the need for cooperation among the participants, sometimes due to the aggregation of actors and preferences, sometimes due to change of the rules, in short all those conditions.
As an example of an attempt to modify electoral expectations in the face of the threat of political changes by the opposition during the Military Regime of 1964-85, we could cite, just to argue:
To face and contain the impetus of the changes, the federal government called for a sequence of acts that constantly modified the rules in the expectation of controlling and aborting the advance of the democratic change that was pointed out by the popular will, as follows: increased representation in the Chamber of Deputies from 310 to 364 seats having the electorate as the basis of proportional representation of the seats instead of the population, but prohibiting the sublegend, with a view to stopping the growing advance of the opposition front represented by the MDB and its internal factions; result: MDB expands its representation despite this ban, electing sixteen of the 22 senators obtaining sixty percent of the votes, increasing its bench in the CD from 28% to 44% in 1974, electing a majority in six state assemblies, compared to the previous situation to the elections when the government held 72% of the CD seats and 89% of the Federal Senate when the opposition even thought about its self-dissolution.
So, the government reacted again by creating laws that prohibited electoral propaganda, because the opposition used the free time in the campaign to express the ills that the government hid from the population through permanent campaigns in the media about the great and happy Brazil, so they took place the municipal elections of 1976, when the effect of these new measures regained the advantage for the government except in the largest capitals where the opposition won, leaving a threat to the federal government for the following elections in 1978.
The federal government came up with new measures to prevent the opposition's new success, so the president decreed a recess in Congress in the first half of April 1977 and released the new measures that earned the nickname of the April Package. It consisted of maintaining indirect elections for governors through changes in the electoral college with more municipal than state representatives (the government had won the previous municipal elections), and to guarantee a majority in the Federal Senate, the government instituted the indirect election for senators by the same college election that would choose the governors, for 1/3 of the Senate, for the other third the sublegend would be admitted, so that multiple ARENA candidates, big names, could compete for seats in the same party. The Chamber increased the number of seats from 364 to 420, returning the coefficient to be proportional to the number of inhabitants and not voters as it was since the last change, these changes were seen to increase the representation of the North and Northeast states that were the strongholds of the governing party, ARENA.
With these changes, ARENA had 42 seats against 25 for the MDB, with no effect in the Chamber of Deputies.
Thus, the Brazilian electorate has shown exceptional constancy and coherence over the last 38 years, with high predictability of results despite countless changes in parties, acronyms, names, legislation and instruments of representation, which was the constant and continuous fall of the right. ARENA lost 1% of total valid votes per year. Thus, ARENA received 50.5% of the valid votes in 1966, 48.4% in 70, 40.9% in 74, 40% in 78.
The new 1979 Organic Law of Parties extinguished bipartisanship, ARENA and MDB, and instituted multipartyism, hoping to explode the opposition. New parties were created: PT, PMDB, PP, PDS, PTB, PDT, PC and PC do B. In 1981, to ensure that opposition parties would not join forces, coalitions between parties were prohibited, forcing parties to submit candidates for all positions, and the binding of votes was instituted. The result was that the pro-government PDS won a majority in the electoral college, but the opposition elected 245 federal deputies (PMDB 200, PDT 24, PT 8, PTB 13) and the pro-government 235. In 1982 the opposition elected 10 of the 23 governors , in 1984 the movement for direct elections won the streets, President Figueiredo abandoned the presidential succession to its fate after the rebellion that his supporting party, the PDS, nominated another candidate, Maluf, in place of the official candidate, Andreazza, having Vice-president Aureliano supported the popular movement of "direct now!", the worsening of the institutional crisis, the loss of credibility of the federal government and the demonstrations and strikes in ABC1-Paulista were the trigger for disputes between adherents and opportunists in the federal government .
This politico-legal engineering produced the following changes in electoral and party rules, with the expectation of maintaining political advantage:
TABLE VIII-1
AI-1 rules for ineligibility of candidates and impeachment of opposition politicians
EC-9 coincided presidential elections with federal legislative elections, of governors, linked the election of the President with that of the Vice President, established the presidential election by absolute majority, reduced the term of the president to four years
EC-12 named mayor of capitals
EC-14 established the four-year electoral domicile terms for gubernatorial candidates, two years for mayoral candidates
the Electoral Code prohibited coalitions between parties for proportional elections, prohibited candidates from aspiring to different positions in the same constituency and to the same position in different constituencies
AI-2 abolishes political parties and creates bipartisanship
AI-3 creates indirect elections for governors and removes opposition politicians
EC-4 creates the sublegend, with each party being able to nominate up to three candidates for the same position, CF-67 reduces representation in the federal chamber for the most populous states, includes delegates from state assemblies in the electoral college, creates indirect elections in the municipalities of national security, separates mayoral elections by two years from governors' elections, reducing electoral domicile time
AI-5 established prior censorship and suspended habeas corpus
AI-7 suspended elections in some states
AI-11 standardizes the date of elections for mayors and governors
EC-1 starts using the electorate to calculate representation and reduces the representation of the Chamber of Deputies from 409 to 310 seats, creates a buffer mandate to cause a delay between municipal, national and state elections, creates tied voting, expands the term of the President for five years
code Eleit./74 maintained the electorate as a calculation basis but increased the number of seats in the Chamber, allowed broad access to TV for candidates, prohibited subtitles for the Senate, instituted the native candidacy – Lei Falcão – which limited and restricted the presentation of candidates on TV
April Package included representatives of the municipal chambers in the states' electoral colleges, bionic senators (senators appointed by the government in 1/3), calculation of representation is again based on the population and not on voters, inclusion of delegates from the legislative assemblies for the college presidential election with extension of the president's term to six years
EC-11 eased the requirement for the formation of new parties, maintained norms of party allegiance in the legislative chambers.
AI-Institutional Act; EC-Constitutional Amendment; CF-Federal Constitution.
with the CF88 the final blow was given in the states of the South and Southeast with the disproportionality the states of the North and Northeast had the same representativeness of the rest of Brazil and now had 513 seats being 50% of the states of the South and Southeast and Midwest and 50% for the North and Northeast, simple as that.
1 Industrial cities in São Paulo where the automobile industries are concentrated and the cradle of left-wing unionism, forming the acrostic ABC: Santo André, São Bernardo do Campo and São Caetano.
Roberto da Silva Rocha, professor universitário e cientista político
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