Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law

Moore’s Law—named after a co-founder of Intel Corporation—states that “the complexity of a microprocessor doubles every 24 months” (a concept introduced in 1965).

The machinery produced by ASML—the company that holds a global monopoly and exclusive rights to the manufacturing of microprocessor wafers smaller than two nanometers—is so complex and absurd that one might compare it to an ophthalmic surgeon attempting cataract surgery using a computerized axe.

Achieving the ultraviolet lithographic printing required to ensure the precision and proper functioning of this massive, unwieldy apparatus involves a series of steps that border on the absurd. It requires a complex array of procedures—nearly impossible to execute—that demand extraordinary levels of precaution and preparation, pushing the absolute limits of optical science, metallurgy, precision engineering, and particle chemistry.

It is akin to handing an axe to Leonardo da Vinci and asking him to create a perfect sculpture while underwater.

In this context, we are not merely discussing technology—which, like everything else in the world, will eventually become obsolete. Consider, for instance, horse-drawn carriages pulled by ten pairs of horses, which eventually became impractical; or the Nazis’ gargantuan cannon, which had to be rebuilt after every single shot; or even the F-35 stealth fighter, which requires more time in preparation for flight than it actually spends in the air. A laser pulse must intercept each droplet of molten mercury—sprayed at a frequency synchronized with the laser’s firing—causing the droplet to emit an ultraviolet ray. This ray must then be focused onto a prepared plate to etch a printed circuit with a thickness of just a few nanometers. Furthermore, after each exposure, the mirrors—now coated in splashes of molten mercury—must be cleaned using a jet of supercooled cryogenic helium gas.

How long, then, will this technology remain relevant before its extreme complexity is rendered obsolete by a superior technological alternative?

The machine is not sophisticated; it is merely "brute force"—much like an ancient Egyptian from the later period of the High Empire attempting to use a giant eagle to fly to the moon; it was simply the only technology that made the dream of flight conceivable. Extreme ultraviolet lithography pushes the boundaries of both feasibility and prudence, especially given that the broader field of nanotechnology remains in its infancy.

Roberto da Silva Rocha, professor universitário e cientista político