Methodological Problem?

Methodological Problem?

During my fifteen years teaching the course "Scientific Methodology" combined with "Scientific Research Techniques" to undergraduate students at five universities and colleges in Brazil, I came across the main debate between Galileo's methodological methods and the method derived from Karl Popper's methodology.

The point of contention between them is the thesis of another philosopher, David Hulme: The Logical Impossibility of Causality.

Everything in science can be explained between two events: the before and the after. What comes immediately before is called the cause event, the causer, the one that explains the following event. The next event is the cause.

Everything would be fine if everything that happens in the universe could fall within the scope of causality, that is, what causes what.

Let's say no laws of physics are being violated, then: by rolling a die, one of those casino dies with its six faces numbered one through six, represented by the dots painted on each face, from one ball to six balls painted, printed, or engraved on each face of the die.

Then the magic of causality happens when the die is rolled on the table, where one of the six possibilities will occur. And it does.

No laws of physics have been violated.

So, why can't we use the deterministic laws of physics to determine in advance which face of the die will land?

This is the most dangerous fallacy of causality.

We can't determine this, even with all the known laws of physics; we rely on chance, or a loaded die, or some dishonest trick.

We want to use the law of causality to explain social facts when not even physical and chemical facts can be explained by the logic of causality.

Political analysts, even the least malicious, at least attempt to connect the actions of policymakers and decision-makers, linking their actions and decisions with their consequences. They also make their predictions based on expectations of the rationality of other actors and the circumstances they believe they can control in their political, economic, and behavioral calculations regarding society, people, nature, the economy, commerce, sports, culture—everything.

If only the universe were predictable and rational, in the Galilean sense!

Roberto da Silva Rocha, professor universitário e cientista político